No Luck

[Randitola]

On Friday Sept 12 with the magnetosphere charged up with a Kp index of 7 due to a two incoming CME's from the sun, I went out around 0100 with the hopes that the clouds would part for me.....they didn't
DSC_0007 by Randitola, on Flickr

[Runmonty]

Still a nice dramatic landscape though.

I am just wondering how reliable the predictions are (ignoring cloud of course)? Please excuse my ignorance, but it isn't something we even consider in my part of the world.

[Randitola]

LOL....no worries Rummonty. The predicitions are often quite accurate. There are a few things to take into account. 1) Kp index ranges 0-9; the higher the number the more south the Aurora will push. 2) Bz which indicates the magnetic orientation (North/South) - If there is a Southerly Bz, increases chance of Northern Lights. 3) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) - These are literally belches of gaseous charged particles that are spewn from the surface of the sun that are not always Earth-directed. These are monitored by satellites such as the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) which do nothing but monitor Solar activity. When these satellites detect an earthbound CME alerts are sent out and like clockwork within 3 days the Kp will spike and the skies light up.....unless cloudy Hope this helps

Still a nice dramatic landscape though.

I am just wondering how reliable the predictions are (ignoring cloud of course)? Please excuse my ignorance, but it isn't something we even consider in my part of the world.

[Iguanasan]

Well, you may not have gotten the aurora but you got a very excellent and dramatic shot. At least you were not completely empty handed coming out of it.

[Marko]

Pretty cool result for sure.

[Hillbillygirl]

Who cares about the Aurora when you get a shot like this?? Beautifully captured Randitola.